Breeders Cup - Saturday 2nd November 2013
Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies (Dirt) (1m 110y)
Saturday’s opening race is the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies, on the main dirt track and run over the extended mile trip. Last year we saw the extremely gutsy filly Beholder lead from pillar to post in what can only be described as a 'gutsy' performance. Looking at the trends its important to remember that you have a slight difference so far as track conditions are concerned: those for the six Santa Anita version of the Juvenile Fillies (two of which were run on Pro-Ride), and the last ten years as a whole.The favorite has the best record of any Breeders Cup race, winning 59% of the time. In the last eleven years, the average paid around the 5/2 mark. Consequently, the worthiness of looking around for value has proven to be irrelevant.
Moreover, the favorite has won 17 of 29 renewals.
Selection: Sweet Reason (win) (nap of the night)
This filly has pace and delivers a determined, authoritative turn of foot over the final two furlongs. Sweet Reason is by Street Sense out of Livermore Lesley a sire who is still relatively new to the game and his progeny's are yet to stamp their authority on our worldwide classics and group races but only time will tell. Indeed, this juvenile filly has looked the kind of classy precocious type we will expect to see from this sire in years to come. The salient points here are that this filly has a superlative set of blood lines which relate from her phenomenal grand sire Street Cry who not only delivered on the track himself winning the Dubai World Cup but has produced an even higher degree of progeny for us to enjoy. Namely, Zenyatta the super mare of the year in America 2010 and Breeders Cup winner 2009, a filly who was unbeaten from 19 wins out of her 20 starts. The Australian Melbourne Cup winner Shocking in 2009 and not to mention her father Street Sense who himself won the Breeders Cup juvenile, Kentucky Derby and a Travers all in one season.
So far as form is concerned Sweet Reason has shown positive progress since losing her maiden tag. Her performance in the Spinaway Stakes at Saratoga on a sloppy track illustrated the gears that she seems to go through with ease, that performance was electrifying. She then went on and competed in the Frizette Stakes, unfortunately for her she reared in the stalls and lost a number of lengths. In short, she almost stayed on and was closing up on Artemis Agrotera in the finish. It's quite simple, if she breaks well, gets dropped in, cruising on the outside with two furlongs to go then I'm certain she will be almost impossible to beat. My nap and it's only race 1!
Breeders Cup Fillies and Mare (Turf) (1m 2f)
The fillies and mares is always an exciting proposition and it's on turf! The Europeans have two propositions here Romantica for Andre Fabre and Dank for Sir Michael Stoute and the latter will fall into my calculations but the available price of 7/4 represents little value. Though, as many will argue her win at Arlington (USA) in the Beverly D over the 9.5 furlong trip illustrated just how superior she seems to be than her counterparts from across the pond. That form may rubber stamp her superiority as Tiz Flirtatious and Marketing Mix have both beaten each other this season and the latter finished a distant 4th behind Dank in the Beverley D Stakes.
Selection: Tiz Flirtatious (each way)
However, Tiz Flirtatious is a filly I really have a lot of respect for and it could well be her year. The starting point here is home advantage, hailing from 'The Golden State' this 5 year old won't have far to go and is on home territory. The Santa Anita track has seen her win 6 times out of 8 visits in which she has never been out of the placings. Martin 'Marty' Jones the trainer obviously thinks the world of her and in the last few years this SoCal trainer has been making waves at tracks like Del Mar and Santa Anita. This undoubtedly would be one of his greatest achievements if my selection can step up to the mark.
The form angle illustrates a need to step up in order to win this against a filly like Dank but she really has been running well. On her last start at Santa Anita she finished with a late rattle up the outside to pip Marketing Mix on the line. It seems that dropping her in and delivering her late may be the plan and I believe if given a clear run then she will be the one to side with. Track experience, a trainer in form and a solid run is sure to take shape from a ultra consistent filly.
Breeders Cup Fillies and Mare Sprint (Dirt) (7f)
The speedster fillies go to post here on the dirt and an extremely competitive heat is in the reckoning. In any country on any course the seven furlong trip has always been a specialist distance, the notion that a combination of speed and stamina will win this type of race is accurate; quickening up with over a furlong to go and sustaining pace on the quickest surface on earth is a lung bursting and thoroughly testing exertion both physically and mentally for our beautiful thoroughbreds.
This dirt race for our beautiful females has a newer feel to it as it wasn't original part of the programme for the Breeders Cup, with six renewals of this race and it only been run three times on the dirt it's fair to say that trends are of little importance...On the contrary, as I do believe one important trend to follow is that five of the last six winners have won over this distance and have indeed ran in or won the PID Masters at Presque Isle Downs or Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes at Keeneland. Therefore it makes sense to select...
Selection: Groupie Doll (win)
It makes little sense to me in looking elsewhere. Groupie Doll took this race in nonchalant style last year and she is proven to handle track, trip and the dirt surface which all points to a performance which maybe hard to beat. She took the PID Masters in workmanlike style but I like the way she stays on in the finish and that may put pay to some of these on a dirt surface looking to extend or quicken as Groupie Doll will undoubtedly be staying on herself. After this race she will be heading to the sales, could this be her swansong?
GEICO Breeders Cup Turf Sprint (Turf) (6f 110y)
This is always an intriguing race to watch as the Santa Anita sprint track has a very idiosyncratic feel to it. Firstly, you may want to watch the Eddie D Stakes which is run at the track in September, the reason I urge you to do so is to acquaint yourself with the way the track twists and turns. Once leaving the stalls the horses sprint in a straight line for the first few furlongs, then a right hand turn which flows into a sweeping left before they hit the home stretch.
Again, solid trends are hard to come by as this is a relatively new event but my advice without question is to select a horse hailing from a wider draw as they are positioned well to cope with the second turn as you don't want to forfeit much in the way of ground. Moreover, horses which have experience of this track will certainly be at an advantage.
Michael Pender the trainer of my selection has slowly but surely been building his training establishment to compete at the highest level year on year. Pender had a passion for racing but planned a way in rather than being born into the game of racing. He studied in California and taught English for many years before he decided to organise a syndicate in which he would buy and train horses. Since then he has never looked back and my selection hails from his yard who over the last 8 years or so have really progressed year on year and a trainer who seems to have a very positive outlook on life.
Selection: Boat Trip (each way)
As mentioned previously home advantage, experience of the idiosyncratic track and him being a progressive type may indeed be the making of Boat Trip's chances. This four year old colt was staying on and accelerating impressively in the closing stages of the Eddie D Stakes at Santa Anita last time out and looked like it took a few furlongs before the proverbial 'penny dropped' for him. Hailing from a mediocre middle draw won't enhance or devalue his chances but he must be positioned in touch if he is to land a blow in this highly competitive sprint. Finally, check out his work at the track on Michael Pender's website it really is worthwhile.
Breeders Cup Juvenile (Dirt) 1m 110y
The all important draw numbers have been selected and I'm a little concerned that the likely favourite Havana may have been a dealt a big enough blow to prevent him from winning. He's drawn out in the car park and that for me is a big enough reason not to back him at the shortish 3/1 price but I'm still going to put him up as my selection on here.
Owned by the mighty and astute buyers Coolmore - John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith who parted with the best part of around the £500,000 mark for this grey colt. Todd Pletcher is the trainer and we all know what he's capable of doing if given the right ammunition.
Selection: Havana (win) (hoping for a good break & easy lead)
In what could arguably be the best form on offer here, he won the one mile Champagne Stakes at Belmont and showed terrific speed throughout only to be closed on by another classy animal Honor Code. Havana will undoubtedly need to find a bit extra as this is an extended mile trip, he may also find a few traffic problems or have to come wide in order to make use of his best asset, which is speed!. This scopey, progressive two year old has the best form to date and looks like a classy juvenile who may indeed have enough in reserve to beat this field. For all my concerns I can't help but feel that Havana is just a cut above these and class alone may be enough to land this. A potential Kentucky Derby prospect in the making.
Breeders Cup Turf (1m 4f)
The turf is going to be lightning fast and that will suit the majority of these runners. Little Mike last years winner lines up again and has shown progress through his races this year indeed his last run in the Joe Hirch Invitational Stakes over the 1m 4f trip at Belmont Park was a solid performance. Little Mike has undoubtedly the experience and class to land this race for a second time. Though, Big Blue Kitten may have something to say about that, beating Little Mike in the United Nations at Monmouth Park earlier this year, both I would suggest are quite evenly matched. More on that later...
Selection: The Fugue (win)
Each Way Selection: Big Blue Kitten (each way)
The Fugue on a firm surface has this race at her mercy, she is quite simply the class pick. She has a plum draw, she will love the sounder surface and in viewing her form taking the Yorkshire Oaks on her penultimate start in a facile manner, hosing up without really being popped the question by William Buick. She showed an excellent turn of foot that day and indeed replicated that performance in the Irish Champion Stakes.
Another huge plus is the record 'us' the Europeans have in this race out of 29 races we have won 16.5. The 16.5 is representative of the dead heat between High Chapparal & Johar in 2003. That said she is going to need an even pace which I'm certain she will get in order for her to show the acceleration we have been used to seeing in UK and Ireland. In missing the Arc she is fresh and that may indeed prove to be an advantage as some of the American runners have been on the go relatively more recently.
I'd find it very hard to neglect an American horse who has shown plenty of potential this season and a horse without question worth backing at an each way price. Big Blue Kitten maybe the horse to stick it to the main protagonists. Indeed, this American bred who's sire Kitten's Joy was owned and bred by the Ramsey's, who are now synonymous with everything associated with the stallion seems to have a solid chance here. Big Blue Kitten has had arguably the season of his life, winning the Sword Dancer at Saratoga in sublime style. Two things I believe you can take from that race are his bravery, in being stopped going up the inside and then having to be switched without losing momentum. He then accelerated towards the line and really showed a turn of foot and tenacity to win in supreme fashion. On his last start in The Hirsch he ran another blinder but again met an element of trouble when turning in, Joe Bravo delivers him late with precision and just lost out, a ride almost timed to perfection.The tactics on Saturday will be to deliver him late and I'm certain that this is the most solid each way selection of the whole card.
XpressBet Breeder Cup Sprint (Dirt) 6f 110y
Private Zone is hard to oppose here, his run in the Vosburgh in my opinion sets the standard. Quick fractions were nailed down that day and he fought back valiantly to get back up on the line beating Justin Philip who re-opposes in this race. I'm certain that he will take all the beating on his preferred surface.
Selection: Private Zone (Win)
Breeders Cup Mile (Turf) 1m
The milers go to post here and Wise Dan has been a true champion for trainer Charles LoPresti and owner Morton Fink. Wise Dan has an outstanding record as a miler he recently won the Ricoh Woodbine Mile Stakes in terrific style and looked classy as ever. On his last start the draw and surface failed to suit him, being back on the turf will be a huge positive and the fact that he won this very race twelve months ago points to him having a huge chance in delivering again.
Selection: No Jet Lag (each way) (draw could be better)
However, my attention has been firmly drawn towards No Jet Lag trained by the 30 year old Simon Callaghan who moved his fledgling operation from England to California in 2009. He has trained the likes of Slim Shady and Dubawi Heights both winning in the upper echelon of West Coast racing. No Jet Lag showed little when based in England but since moving to sunnier climbs it is without question that we have the most progressive horse in the field and looks to be stepping into company he deserves to be apart of. This son of Johar has done nothing wrong particularly when he won the City of Hope mile stakes at the Santa Anita track beating the likes of He Be Fire N Ice and Obviously. The latter finishing a solid third in the Breeders Cup Turf Mile last year. No Jet Lag has only had two starts in America this summer and he's won both in determined fashion. Mike Smith the Hall of Fame jockey seems to have taken a liking to him and I'm sure he will give this young, progressive colt every chance in landing a blow. (At the time of writing currently 12/1's with Stan James).
Breeders Cup Classic (Dirt) (1m 2f)
Like any big event within the realm of sport the creme rises to the top and boy am I excited to witness this ultra competitive renewal on the fastest surface out there. It can be very difficult to fall out of love with a racehorse, you may know the form and you may indeed know who the main rivals will be for your selection. Still, you carefully scroll through the form lines, make notes as you go, look at trends/angles, view the video's to check your understanding is clear, you may even decide to check trainer form/jockey form at the track. But it always comes back to that same old feeling, the adage that when you hold people dear and you begin to like them and count them as a true friend it is very hard to let that feeling go. This is echoed by my thoughts on this race and Mucho Macho Man has captured my imagination and I will be cheering him on all the way up the straight!
Selection: Mucho Macho Man (win)
It's quite simple really I love this horse, a year on and he goes for the best possible chance of taking this race. Allowing the head to rule the heart for a moment, when dissecting his current run of form it's quite easy to see that he was scintillating in his previous performance taking the Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita in terrific style, that was some performance but what did he actually beat? Well, Paynter who finished a mile behind in second takes his chance in this race but I'm not certain it was the strongest form line you could pick from the other entries but it still demonstrated the class this animal possesses.
Looking back at the tape of last years Breeders Cup Classic it's clear to see that this 5 year old gives everything and was just fought off by a resilient stayer in Fort Larned who will run again. In short, I love this horse, he'll fight, give his all and I'm already on.
Good Luck if your having a punt and thanks for reading.
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