The French big three at three...
With the 2013 race less than two months away my mind has been firmly on reviewing the videos and wading through the runners who are likely to go to post. Firstly, we have the French 3yo's to contend with and starting with the current antepost favourite Flintshire we may indeed have an excellent son of Dansilli on our hands here and his full brother Dance Moves isn't too shabby either recently finishing 3rd in the Prix Kerkorlay. Flintshire has made excellent progression as a three year old taking most recently the Prix de Paris over the extended 1m 3f trip and looked in complete command, that run was on good ground and he lengthened his stride beautifully over the final few furlongs. Flintshire is certainly progressing and is still only three, he will need to step up again to win the Arc but all the evidence so far points to this happening.
Frankie Dettori must be rubbing his hands at the thought of riding the beautiful, scopey filly Treve. This daughter of Motivator who won the Prix de Diane winning cosily on that occassion has recently been purchased by Sheikh Joaan Bin Hamad Al Thani. The filly will remain in training with one of the finest handlers in the game Criquette Head-Maarak whose family run the beautiful Haras du Quesnay where Treve was bred and owned by the family. She undoubtedly has a supreme turn of foot and looks like the extended trip 1m 4f will be well within her grasp. The Prix Vermaille at Longchamp looks to be her next target and it will be interesting to see if she meets yet again the classy filly Chicquitta and if she can handle the step up in trip I see a good perfromance in order. We have had a plethera of fillies winning the Arc in recent years not least Zarkava and Danedream, could she be as classy as those two? I believe so. Intello is an intriguing proposition, this beautiful bred son of Galileo has been kept over the shorter trip of 7 furlongs in the main but has a win to his name over 10 furlongs winning the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly. My only concern here is that Intello seems to show speed throughout his races and it seems that 1 mile is more suited for him. However, from the Dam side being by Danehill it certainly shows a level of stamina and through his father Galileo we would be silly in writing off his chances just yet.  What of the older horses?
I'll start with the Japenese bred 5 year old Orfevre, the Japanese triple crown winner of 2011 is on his way to France as we speak being housed in Chantilly for his 2nd crack at landing the Arc. This beautiful chestnut has shown to be extremely talented his sire Stay Gold won the Sheema Classic and the Hong Kong Vase. More importantly though Orfevre is a talent with quirks, The Arc race last year illustrated this he had the race at his mercy, Orfevre came from the back of the eighteen runner field and sprouted wings portraying a lightning turn of foot. However, he threw it away in a matter of strides before the line, hanging right handed and hitting the rail, consequently being pipped on the line by Solemia, those two indeed finishing seven lengths clear of the field. Ever since that day I have been completely intrigued by this international globetrotter and seeing him in the flesh illustrates his beautiful constitution. Hence, it's important to see how he's been doing this year as a five year old and it's a little bit of a quandary. He won and ran well in the Sankei Osaka Hai at Hanshin going off at prohibited odds and was then expected to defend his crown in the Takarazuka Kinen run in Kyoto on the 23rd June but he was withdrawn nine days before as he was found to have bled in a routine exercise gallop. Orfevre has been put away since and will go to the Arc fresh as a daisy taking in his usual race schedule by running in the Prix Foy Arc trial at Longchamp and then onto the Arc three weeks later. Personally, I'm a huge fan of Orfevre and have always been a little dubious with Japanese form as I remember Deep Impact being backed off the board only to finish 3rd in the Arc back in 2006. However, it's worth noting that his stud record has been impressive indeed Gentildonna one of his progeny fillies won the Japan Cup and went on to win the fillies triple crown so 'every cloud'. Back to Orfevre and I see him as the forgotton horse, remember this horse finished seven lengths clear in the 2012 race, accelerated past all rivals and showed an excellent turn of foot. The likes of Sea Moon, Masterstroke, Shareta, St Nicholas Abbey and Camelot were all in attendance last year. I beg the question, is this as good a renewal? Orfevre could be the forgotton horse here, forget him at your peril.
The Irish bred Monsun colt Novellist allows us to fly back into European airspace and this four year old illustrated his talent and stamina/speed last time out when breaking the track record in the King George IV & Queen Elizabeth Stakes over the 1m 4f trip at Ascot. Novellist is trained in Germany by the excellent handler Andreas Wohler and was bred and owned by Christoph Berglar. The progression made by Novellist illustrates how some horses come to hand later and now at the tender age of four it seems he is undoubtedly progressive and a more solid stronger thoroughbred. The next port of call will most probably be in the Preis Von Baden in Baden Baden, that I'm sure will be his final prep race before he takes his chance in the Arc. In terms of pedigree his grand sire Konigsstuhl won the German triple crown and won eleven races in Germany and Italy notably winning the Gran Premio del Jockey Club in 1981. Konigsstuhl went on to be a pretty useful sire and his son Monsun in particularly has been one of his notable successful sons who unfortunately died recently in September of 2012 it seems he found more success at stud than that on the racetrack. Novellist consequently seems to have the right mix of stamina and speed, he also seems to be pretty useful on a variety of surfaces much like his sire which may prove very useful in the autumn. After his last run it will be extremely interesting to see how he gets on, I believe he has an excellent chance of landing the Arc this October.
 The lively outsider...
This brings me on to my final preview for the main contenders of the Arc and I'm pointing the finger firmly at a potential outsider. The Japanese bred Kizuna is under the spotlight here and I'll be looking into parts of his remarkable blood lines but first take the time to watch the video above, this was a solid performance in winning the Japanese Derby back in May of this year. Kizuna's half sister Phalaenopsis was the winner of three group races including the Oka Sho (1000 Guineas) and his half - brother finished 3rd in the 2002 Belmont Stakes. I've already mentioned his sire in my previous post Deep Impact (of which Kizuna is his 3rd crop) who won the Japanese triple crown and who undoubtedly will be remembered as one of the true great racehorses and is currently the leading sire in Japan. However, it's the dam side I'd like to focus on as it makes interesting reading. The sire of all sires which most racing/breeding enthusiast will be familiar with is present here and thats the mighty Storm Cat who is his grand sire. This horse had an excellent record in America on the track but has had much more of an impact throughout his stud career. Storm Cat sired earnings of around $127 million and his record really speaks for itself, 108 graded stakes winners including winners of the Kentucky Oaks (grade 1), Preakness Stakes and in Breeders Cup races amongst others. Indeed, he ranked 2nd on the all time Breeders Cup sire list and by osmosis carried his genes throughout european group races, a thoroughly outstanding piece of inheritance that no doubt is a huge part of this horses psychological and physiological make up.
With all this Kizuna still needs to prove and deliver on the track, he has been based in Chantilly since the middle of July and will go for the Prix Niel on September 15th at Longchamp. I am interested to see if he has the ability to travel and stay in a finish on a european racetrack against group horses. Going to be very interesting... |
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