| Cheltenham 2013 The arrival of a loved one who you have not been able to see in a year, touch or hold close has just walked through the 'nothing to declare' arrival doors. Seeing is believing and if you at that moment could bottle your emotions, feelings, the flow of electricity pulsing through your veins and the utter joy and happiness you feel to see them then that is how I'm feeling about the start of our beloved National Hunt World Championships of racing the Cheltenham Festival begins in earnest tomorrow. |
As with last year I'm very interested to find the value and I think I've found a few who fit the bill for day one of the festival.
Cheltenham Festival - Day 1
1.30pm William Hill Supreme Novices Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 110y
JP McManus is an owner who certainly helps to keep our sport alive and kicking, his passion and interest in horseracing plays a major role for jobs, investment and quality. In mentioning this he has two likely contenders who may indeed take the world of beating. Starting with the likely favourite and the highly progressive My Tent or Yours by Desert Prince out of Spartan Girl the pedigree points more towards a flat pedigree and certainly not a renowned national hunt heritage. However, when trying to win this race the ability to travel at a strong gallop is essential and thats why many winners have had some form of flat pedigree. When looking at the form this horse has done nothing but progress and looked every ounce a class act when winning the Betfair Hurdle by an easy 5 lengths. That form is strong particularly the way he travelled on the bit for much of the race. The other runner for JP McManus is the second favourite in the betting and that's Jezki, this horse is another who has excellent recent form and was only recently purchased by JP. Bear in mind here that the horse is trained in Ireland by the excellent dual trainer Jessica Harrington and that the Irish have secured victory in five of the last 10 renewals of this race. Jezki out of the well known sire of Milan has really been pleasing and has set a good marker all year in his races. Last time out form around Christmas time was the best to date at Leopardstown and if fit and well I see the trip and distance no problem, both of JP's horses have a great shout in ground that they are proven on but I'm siding with Jezki who will undoubtedly be fresh, some say the absence is a worry but in recent years particularly with top level horses we are seeing them less and less and with the right facilities a horse is ready at home and that really doesn't bother me. Jezki to land the opener as I believe his form is rock solid and I see more progress to be made, Robbie Power the jockey riding him has also been very positive in his comments these past two weeks.
2.05pm Racing Post Arkle Trophy Chase (Grade 1) 2m
Simonsig trained by Nicky Henderson has been a very exciting prospect, this 7 year old travels like a train, jumps like a stag and quite simply is an odds on shot because he is just too good to be troubled by his rivals here. He won the Neptune in terrific style at the festival last year and even though many feel Cotton Mill would of got closer or even won are talking nonsense, he was simply breathtaking in that victory and has kept progressing all season winning at Ascot and Kempton. It is however fair to say that he is yet to face a real challenger, someone that may get him off the bridle, someone who will make him work for his victory and that may come in the shape of Overturn. Overturn is a horse I really love a dual purpose horse that anyone would feel extremely lucky to have and a horse with an engine over the 2 mile trip but I haven't been overly or even half as excited as I was when he ran over hurdles last year. I think he has it all to do and is very late in taking up the jumping game, plus the ground has a little too much juice in it for him as he likes to gallop end to end from the front and that certainly will play into Simonsig's hands come the final 2 furlongs or so. That said and with no value in backing Simonsig I'll be looking at Tap Night at a big price to come storming up the Cheltenham. He has a very random intriguing pedigree with the (USA) title next to his name and your right in thinking that having a US pedigree in our NH game is quite rare but the form points to a two miler who is going places and indeed can stay further and that's what I like. Soft ground won't bother him or the distance he'll be fine particularly with the champion, outstanding, consistent Mr AP McCoy who is still my favourite jockey as he gives everything and is the absolutely definition of a professional. It's also worth noting that he's won twice on this horse and seems to have struck an excellent partnership with him. If Tap Night can replicate his easy victory at Ayr and travel at the track then I see him with a chance of finishing in the first three, he obviously has a lot to find with the favourite but a small each way bet even with just 7 runners may just be worth it.
2.40pm JLT Specialty Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 110y
The handicaps are where we hunt for the value and find prospective winners at lovely attractive prices. It's also worth noting some of the trends in recent years for all handicap races but in my opinion far better than that is to judge a horse not only on his merits this season but also to see if the handicapper may have underestimated some of these. I won't mention and bore the life out of you with trends but a few to bear in mind are as follows, only one horse carrying more than 10-12 has won, Bensalem was the last to do so in the previous ten renewals and 8/10 winners had a prep run between 24 & 63 days before this race. These trends point to a progressive type who is carrying a low weight, well handicapped and has recent form in the book, that horse for me is White Star Line carrying 10-5 with an excellent run under his belt finishing second at Fairyhouse and that could be the perfect prep run for an even better performance here. White Star Line has course form running in a similar event last year over a slightly shorter trip finishing 2nd to Hunt Ball on that occasion. With the ground currently soft that surely will also play into his strengths and a light weight on his back clearly gives him an each way chance here.
My other selection isn't really trend based, more on recent form and form at the Cleeve Hill track. With a good bounce back to form last time out Hey Big Spencer is a horse I will always have a soft spot for, he's a big burly type and is an out and out stayer. This season he has undoubtedly be disappointing and yes he isn't getting any younger but I still believe one big run this season is on the cards and it may come here if he takes confidence from his last performance in a veterans race at Warwick when losing to Michel Le Bon over the extended 3 miles which in the scheme of things may not be the strongest form but he certainly looked like his old self. His form at Cheltenham in all career starts is usually consistent, he has won over the 21furlong trip and been placed. If his jumping is fluent and is switched off out the back then he may make stealth like progress through the pack and be in with a chance coming up the hill. I like him in my heart but on paper he may just be good enough if he returns to his winning mark of 150.
3.20pm Stan James Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 110y
The centrepiece on day one and yet another exciting race in prospect. This is where an antepost bet of mine was placed at Christmas and I'm on Rock On Ruby at a tasty 9/1. Not much needed here as I'm sweet on him protecting his crown and believe if a strong pace is set from the start he will take all the beating again this year. The trainer Harry Fry has been singing his praises in regards to how well he's working and with blinkers being applied to prevent him idling when he hits the front, I see a repeat of last year on the cards. His form this season probably hasn't proved much, he finished 3rd to Grandouet and Zarkandar but that was on heavy ground and his previous run wasn't scintillating or breathtaking but that was his sharpener for this. He beat Hurricane Fly, dispensed of Zarkandar last year and those are his only two main rivals. Noel Fehily if he can drop him in 3 or 4 behind, up with the pace then his turn of foot even on this softer surface will be hard to live with come the turn in.
Nothing else takes my fancy as I'm not a huge fan of the cross country race, in the Mares race Quevaga looks like making history and the final handicap is a non betting race for me but Hazy Tom at a big price looks to be well handicapped.
Good Luck on day one!
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