Willie Mulins is off to a dream start landing three winners yesterday and showing that the Irish can still be a force to be reckoned with. The highlight race was seeing Hurricane Fly land the blue riband Champion Hurdle and what a breathtaking performance it was coming up the Cheltenham hill. In that race I was also extremely impressed by the perfromance of Rock on Ruby he was my selection and gave his all, setting up a strong pace in which he still stayed on in the finish. Harry Fry will be back with him next year and he has every chance.
An excellent first day, now on with Day 2...
1.30pm John Oaksey National Hunt Chase (Amateur Riders) 4m
The ground was misinterpretated on a few occassions yesterday and if no rain falls in the next 24 hour then I think its on the good side of soft, maybe even better than that. It's worth bearing in mind as this is an out and out stayers race, over a 4 mile trip and you need to have not only a good amateur on board (which I believe in this race is crucial) but also a horse who can gallop and jump consistently. As mentioned yesterday in my blog I'm certainly not a huge trend follower and will never pick selections solely on that but I will take note if I feel they are worth mentioning. One such trend is that in the last 10 renewals the winner has been placed 1st or 2nd in a chase over 3 miles before this race, I also see that 9 of the last 10 have won over at least 3 miles. In short, a proven stayer is what you are after, plus a horse that goes on good to soft ground. This is where a horse like ROSE OF THE MOON appeals for another master of duality (I think that makes sense) good at both codes maybe easier to understand. This is an 8 year old who has won over three miles and a horse who has had a terrific season bar his last run at Newbury. That run is quite puzzling and maybe worth drawing a line through it, well I will be anyway. ROSE OF THE MOON has had experience of Cheltenham before, indeed he finished 8th in the Martin Pipe two seasons ago, although that was over a shorter trip and against arguably better horses. He has also been close to Bobs Worth in early 2011 when finishing second to him over the 2m 4f trip. Now that form isnt really relevant but it does show that he can handle Cheltenham and I think this race has been on the radar for quite a few months now. His two victories this term were over 3 miles 1 furlong at Wetherby and he was impressive that day as well as winning at Sedgfield in impressive style winning by a total of 34 lengths when you add both perfomances together. I see him as a staying chaser and at a current 16/1 he has a great shout each way.
2.05pm Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 5f
With the Willie Mullins trained Pont Alexandre lining up here it is quite easy to follow the money but I'm still not fully convinced. He hasn't had to face a stiff battle in any of his two performances to date and will need to be ready for a proper battle here. This is one of my favourite races this year as it really is a field of absolute quality. We have the young pretenders here who undoubtedly will be going on to bigger and better things. Simonsig won this race twelve months ago and illustrated yesterday exactly what a classy if not a little over zealous beast he is. I've had this horse in my notebook since winning at Cheltenham last October and he has progressed, developed, looks classy, is classy and will take some beating. THE NEW ONE is my selection and make no mistake the trainer thinks the world of him and believes he is one of the best he's ever trained. THE NEW ONE finished 6th in the bumper last year at the festival and has done nothing but improve winning six times since and finishing 2nd last time out to At Fishers Cross which probably lends itself to ground he doesn't like and Sam Twiston Davies may have got the tactics wrong but he still went down fighting and lost by a neck. The ground currently will suit him, I've always be a big admire of the trainer and he knows how to get them ready for the big races particulalry festival week. A horse I have taken to heart but on form figures currently he looks the one to beat with the most solid form in the book.
2.40pm RSA Chase (Grade 1) 3m 110y
An intriguing race in which the Irish have a good record in. An interesting fact is that the last 10 winners ran 53 days or less before taking this prize. HADRIANS APPROACH just seems to be one of the most progressive improvers who's jumping gets better and better. The Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty partnership in getting the best out of this horse is working and he is undoubtedly classy but can let himsef down by his jumping at times. However, on his recent start when going down by a shy head to Unioniste showed me just what he's capable of. With HADRIANS APPROACH on this surface and if he holds his jumping together then I see a big run on the cards.
4.00pm Coral Cup (Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle) 2m 5f
Light weights under 11 stone have accounted for 8 of the last 10 winners and again we have quite a few trends to look through and match up with the runners and riders. Conversely, I'm starting with a selection that doesn't happen to fit many of these trends but did show a sparkle. After watching his last performance, the resolution he showed, the way he jumped and travelled then I believe a chance must be given to SADDLER'S RISK. Philip Hobbs is another trainer who usually picks up a few winners at Cheltenham and I was really impressed by this horse carrying top weight over the 19 furlong trip last time out at Ascot. SADDLERS RISK is a talented individual who seemed to lose his way after finishing 6th in the Triumph Hurdle last year. In many of his runs to date he seems to travel and jump consistently but maybe not quite good enough at the highest level. However, Richard Johnson seemed to get the best out of him last time out and almost won fighting all the way to the line and carried to weight. Consequently, I think better ground and being up with the gallop will help to settle him an each way chance without question.
My other selection here is BONDAGE who has recent course and distance form, winning at the track back in October and in that victory stayed on up the hill very impressively. The trainer Gordon Elliot is also a shrewd operator and in running off the same mark as he did on his recent second to Coneygree puts him well in here. BONDAGE would prefer better ground but can still be effective on a slower surface.
That's it for Day 2 good luck if you are having a punt!
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