In anticipation of Cheltenham Festival week I thought I'd decipher through some of my own thoughts week by week leading up to the festival to highlight some of the key variables and trends that may help in selecting winners.
This years season has been hugely effected by the weather and many yards have struggled both in training preparations and indeed getting the horse to the track. With this in mind many track going descriptions have evolved around the word 'heavy', we've witnessed some horses plough through it all day long and others require a sounder surface for a true performance to be realised. Has this had a long term effect on our beloved thoroughbreds? Well, only time will tell but it is worth noting that with drier conditions leading up to Cheltenham week this may indeed and should be a factor in your selection process.
In my mind I believe that previous festival form will once again prove to be a key trend at the festival. The horses who have proven that they excel under those conditions will have a big advantage this year and certainly experiencing the crowds, the parade ring and encountering the undulating and testing Cheltenham hill in my opinion is probably one of the biggest trends to side with. This year more than any other I think experience will count.
Rock on Ruby fits into this trend nicely and is certainly one I backed a few months ago at a nice each way price. Experience (tick), Cheltenham form (tick), Good Ground (tick). I also think he has been under the radar somewhat and hasn't received the kind of credit he deserves for a Champion Hurdle winner.
On with tomorrow's card...
Chepstow (Soft)
15.20pm Handicap Chase 2m 110y (Class 2)
Selected this intriguing handicap race to start proceedings. Oh Crick took this race one year ago off a 3lb lower mark, he lines up again here but is struggling to fine form as is the trainer at present and I'm certain I have found one that can still show progress, who's dropped down the weights, is now running off a workable mark and will appreciate the drop back to the 2 mile trip. DOESLESSTHANME has lost his form in recent starts but I blame that on a combination of running him over the extended 2 miles and putting him up against some better 2 milers. This is much more his standard and if the ground can dry out a fraction over the next 24 hours then I see the Nicholls/Jacob combo adding another winner to this seasons tally.
Kempton Park
14.05pm Juvenile Hurdle 2m (Class 1)
Some of these certainly putting their Cheltenham credentials on the line here and it's going to be a very competitive heat. IRISH SAINT is the selection and trained once again by Paul Nicholls with Ruby Walsh on board. IRISH SAINT is currently around the 16/1 price to land the competitive Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham this year. He ran a very credible race behind Rolling Star who is alot shorter in the betting for the Triumph and who looks like he could be yet another superstar for Michael Buckley. That form line is strong and with Vasco Du Ronceray losing when an odds on shot at Doncaster last time, not seeing out the 2 miles on that occasion it then obviously points to IRISH SAINT this French import to show just how classy he is, blinkered first time has experienced the track and distance, for me is the one to beat.
15.50pm Racing Post Plus Chase 3m (Grade 3 Handicap)
Looking at the trends for this race over the last decade some interesting trends have emerged. For example a horse who runs prominently, has been trained by Philip Hobbs, Colin Tizzard or Paul Nicholls, aged 6 to 8 and officially rated 141 or higher usually do very well indeed. Lets take Philip Hobbs as a prime example and a trainer I have always admired has won this race three times in the past ten years and six of his twelve runners have made the frame. Unfortunately, I'm not sure Duke of Lucca or Quinz quite have the characteristics to take the race this year. No, I'm looking at WYCK HILL trained by the up and coming David Bridgwater, this horse has had recent form franked by Katenko who has turned into a bit of a machine over the longer trips, WYCK HILL beat him by 4 lengths just before Christmas and looks like he'll take all the beating today. Not only does he fit quite a few trends, but he is an out an out galloper who likes to be ridden from the front and is still on the upgrade. He has indeed gone up the handicap but is carrying a low weight and with the champ AP McCoy on his back I see a big performance in the reckoning.
16.25pm Handicap Hurdle 2m 5f (Class 3)
A tricky, trappy handicap hurdle but one in which we can find some value. DE BLACKSMITH trained by the inform Gary Moore looks to be progressing at a rate of knott's. Quite a few of these are stepping up in trip and have yet to face the quick galloping track of Kempton which certainly requires stamina. I was really taken by the manner in which this horse rallied up the run in at Plumpton to led close home, a truly gutsy, determined performance when carrying top weight. DE BLACKSMITH is stepping up into handicap company for the first time as are many others in this race and this is undoubtedly his toughest task yet but he may give the handicapper an extreme migraine if he gallops clear, on the snaff, with two to jump. Obviously, that may not happen but if he is involved in a close fought finish he'll certainly be one to keep the right side of.
Newcastle
14.55pm Betfred Eider 4m 1f (Handicap Chase) (Class 2)
Hoping that the ground is nowhere near soft enough for so many to be pulled up as we have witnessed in the last couple of years. Staying is the name of the game here and it's quite a mixed bag of seasoned professionals coupled with the young pretenders who may progress sufficiently enough to take this. I'm staying with the more experienced ten year old camp and I'm looking to David Pipe who is in terrific form and has a pretty impressive strike rate at Newcastle over the last five years. Saddling 16 runners, 5 of which winners and 7 places. MASTER OVERSEER is the selection, yes he has his quirks and wants to lead from pillar to post but when in the mood and given an uncontested lead he is very hard to pin back and is an out and out stayer. He is a Midlands National winner over this distance on good to soft ground and has recent form on heavy going in a veterans race at Wincanton over the extended 3 miles. Tom Bellamy takes off a healthy 7lbs from his back and I believe if everything fails right he'll take all the beating.
Good Luck.
This years season has been hugely effected by the weather and many yards have struggled both in training preparations and indeed getting the horse to the track. With this in mind many track going descriptions have evolved around the word 'heavy', we've witnessed some horses plough through it all day long and others require a sounder surface for a true performance to be realised. Has this had a long term effect on our beloved thoroughbreds? Well, only time will tell but it is worth noting that with drier conditions leading up to Cheltenham week this may indeed and should be a factor in your selection process.
In my mind I believe that previous festival form will once again prove to be a key trend at the festival. The horses who have proven that they excel under those conditions will have a big advantage this year and certainly experiencing the crowds, the parade ring and encountering the undulating and testing Cheltenham hill in my opinion is probably one of the biggest trends to side with. This year more than any other I think experience will count.
 |
| Rock on Ruby (Aintree 2012) |
On with tomorrow's card...
Chepstow (Soft)
15.20pm Handicap Chase 2m 110y (Class 2)
Selected this intriguing handicap race to start proceedings. Oh Crick took this race one year ago off a 3lb lower mark, he lines up again here but is struggling to fine form as is the trainer at present and I'm certain I have found one that can still show progress, who's dropped down the weights, is now running off a workable mark and will appreciate the drop back to the 2 mile trip. DOESLESSTHANME has lost his form in recent starts but I blame that on a combination of running him over the extended 2 miles and putting him up against some better 2 milers. This is much more his standard and if the ground can dry out a fraction over the next 24 hours then I see the Nicholls/Jacob combo adding another winner to this seasons tally.
Kempton Park
14.05pm Juvenile Hurdle 2m (Class 1)
Some of these certainly putting their Cheltenham credentials on the line here and it's going to be a very competitive heat. IRISH SAINT is the selection and trained once again by Paul Nicholls with Ruby Walsh on board. IRISH SAINT is currently around the 16/1 price to land the competitive Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham this year. He ran a very credible race behind Rolling Star who is alot shorter in the betting for the Triumph and who looks like he could be yet another superstar for Michael Buckley. That form line is strong and with Vasco Du Ronceray losing when an odds on shot at Doncaster last time, not seeing out the 2 miles on that occasion it then obviously points to IRISH SAINT this French import to show just how classy he is, blinkered first time has experienced the track and distance, for me is the one to beat.
15.50pm Racing Post Plus Chase 3m (Grade 3 Handicap)
Looking at the trends for this race over the last decade some interesting trends have emerged. For example a horse who runs prominently, has been trained by Philip Hobbs, Colin Tizzard or Paul Nicholls, aged 6 to 8 and officially rated 141 or higher usually do very well indeed. Lets take Philip Hobbs as a prime example and a trainer I have always admired has won this race three times in the past ten years and six of his twelve runners have made the frame. Unfortunately, I'm not sure Duke of Lucca or Quinz quite have the characteristics to take the race this year. No, I'm looking at WYCK HILL trained by the up and coming David Bridgwater, this horse has had recent form franked by Katenko who has turned into a bit of a machine over the longer trips, WYCK HILL beat him by 4 lengths just before Christmas and looks like he'll take all the beating today. Not only does he fit quite a few trends, but he is an out an out galloper who likes to be ridden from the front and is still on the upgrade. He has indeed gone up the handicap but is carrying a low weight and with the champ AP McCoy on his back I see a big performance in the reckoning.
16.25pm Handicap Hurdle 2m 5f (Class 3)
A tricky, trappy handicap hurdle but one in which we can find some value. DE BLACKSMITH trained by the inform Gary Moore looks to be progressing at a rate of knott's. Quite a few of these are stepping up in trip and have yet to face the quick galloping track of Kempton which certainly requires stamina. I was really taken by the manner in which this horse rallied up the run in at Plumpton to led close home, a truly gutsy, determined performance when carrying top weight. DE BLACKSMITH is stepping up into handicap company for the first time as are many others in this race and this is undoubtedly his toughest task yet but he may give the handicapper an extreme migraine if he gallops clear, on the snaff, with two to jump. Obviously, that may not happen but if he is involved in a close fought finish he'll certainly be one to keep the right side of.
Newcastle
14.55pm Betfred Eider 4m 1f (Handicap Chase) (Class 2)
Hoping that the ground is nowhere near soft enough for so many to be pulled up as we have witnessed in the last couple of years. Staying is the name of the game here and it's quite a mixed bag of seasoned professionals coupled with the young pretenders who may progress sufficiently enough to take this. I'm staying with the more experienced ten year old camp and I'm looking to David Pipe who is in terrific form and has a pretty impressive strike rate at Newcastle over the last five years. Saddling 16 runners, 5 of which winners and 7 places. MASTER OVERSEER is the selection, yes he has his quirks and wants to lead from pillar to post but when in the mood and given an uncontested lead he is very hard to pin back and is an out and out stayer. He is a Midlands National winner over this distance on good to soft ground and has recent form on heavy going in a veterans race at Wincanton over the extended 3 miles. Tom Bellamy takes off a healthy 7lbs from his back and I believe if everything fails right he'll take all the beating.
Good Luck.
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