The month of January is always an interesting time of year for all NH fans. Trainers and punters alike are looking at possible entries for runners before Cheltenham but also painting the picture in March when the daffodils are blossoming and the temperature begins to pick up as we head towards the pinnacle championship races on the hill of all hills cleeve hill in deepest Gloucestershire where a new champion will be born. Right now, we are trying to decipher which race our potential selections will be running in, looking through our notes since October to see if the brightest of spring days may well be on its way.
I honestly cannot wait but with two months still to go, patience is a virtue and more racing to look through before our festival of thoroughbred national hunt racing begins and as Alistair Downe stated last year,
'That jump racing is all about emotion and the power of man and horse to both shake and shape your core. as long as there are folk who think that jumping a fence flat out on a winter's afternoon is a blessed piece of devilment forever worth the doing. And may that prove to be always.'
From a brilliant writer to a brilliant days racing, on with the card...
Warwick
12.40pm Novices Handicap Hurdle (Class 4) 2m
I've chosen to start in the first at Warwick because I'm certain that I've found a little value in my first selection of the day. THUNDER SHELK obviously has to put in a performance and will need to handle the soft conditions at Warwick but I see progress being made when judging him on his last run at Towcester, in that race he look well in contention three out only to find little over the 2m 5f trip, now he reverts back to the 2 miles off the same mark of 110 and with a huge positive in the booking of Timmy Murphy on board, I certainly believe a big run is on the cards. THUNDER SHELK has been running against better opposition than this recently and now amongst company similar to his ability I think enough positive boxes are ticked to give him a nice each way chance. Plus, how many of these would finish 35 lengths or better behind Hinterland?...
1.15 Handicap Chase (Class 3) 2m
KAPGA DE CERISY is still only a five year old and is the scopey. progressive type who can really make it in this type of race. Blinkered first time here this French recruit for the Venetia Williams yard has the potential to become an excellent chaser. Venetia has her horses in terrific form at present and when she's in form it's also worth following her stable. KAPGA DE CERISY ran an excellent race over the extended 2 miles at Ascot on his penultimate start finishing fourth at big odds. That run showed promise and going back over the 2 mile trip will suit, I have no real doubts over the ground as hailing from France they usually like a bit of toe in and finishing close behind Rolling Aces and finishing five lengths behind Hadrian's Approach is excellent form. To sum up a horse going places, will obviously need to jump efficiently but with a trainer and jockey in form, I think progress will be made with no stamina doubts in soft conditions.
1.50 Novices Chase (Class 2) 3m 110y
A small field go to post but with a few quality contenders in the mix. I'm a huge fan of my selection who has won two chases this season, a Flemensfirth gelding who did nothing but show his class, his efficient slick jumping from the front to win a competitive heat at Cheltenham last time out. HIGHLAND LODGE drew away by 22 lengths beating Our Father in impressive style. His official rating has now gone up by 2lbs which in my opinion wont stop this excellent chaser in the making. Emma Lavelle has a super chaser on her hands and I see this gelding going up the ratings by at least another 10lbs. So in my view HIGHLAND LODGE will get the trip on a soft going and will be very hard to beat if aloud to dictate proceedings. I've got my hands covering my eyes but this is my nap of the day.
2.25pm Pertemps Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) (Class 2) 3m 1f
The Pertemps hurdle at the festival is always a competitive heat and was won in terrific style by Cape Tribulation last season and some of these will undoubtedly have that as there target this year. A real mixed bag of contenders here leaves you with a bit of a head scratch, for example West End Rocker is reverting back to hurdles, a real staying type which may rekindle his form but haven't seen him over hurdles since 2008. Other types like De La Bech are progressing at a rate of knotts and maybe well in here both in weight and handicap mark. But THE PACKAGE is the class pick here, he came back to win the Badger Ales Chase at Wincanton in terrific style and then finished 4th in the Hennessy off a chase mark of 147 which is 13lbs higher than his mark for this race. He is off course reverting back over hurdles and I'm certain his form over fences can justify him having a huge chance here. He's well in at the weights and it looks like Timmy Murphy can be on the scoresheet once again. THE PACKAGE has all the right credentials to land this race as ground, trip and course wont pose a problem to this classy 10 year old.
3.35pm Betfred Classic Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) 3m 5f (Class 1)
The stamina sapping trip on a soft going equats to a solid, strong travelling horse who can jump and travel. The horse that sticks out in this race is Pete the Feat, much like Hunt Ball last season he has made some impressive progress up through the handicap and in fairness has his stiffest task to date but he still maybe one step ahead of the handicap. However, I'm going to swerve him as I believe he has reached the point where others around him are probably better in this quality of race but fair play to the Kings Theatre gelding and Charlie Longsden who has undoubtedly done a superb training job for the owners Mr Larby and Mr Smith. Pete the Feat this time last year was running in a class 5 race at Folkstone rated as low as 95, he's now rated 134. I'm siding with BRADLEY once again, he seemed unsettled after jumping the first at Cheltenham last time, he was bussled along and never really settled into his jumping properly. The blinkers this time may spark him back into life as he'll certainly stay over this trip and on this ground. The form that has been well and truly franked was his second to Monbeg Dude in the Henrietta Knight handicap chase where he finished a neck behind. Monbeg Dude of course won the Welsh National last weekend so that form if replicated looks very strong indeed. The other interesting trend is that in the last two years a nine year old has taken this race.
Kempton Park
2.40pm Lanzarote Hurdle (Listed Handicap) 2m 5f
The real interest I have in this race is that I see two horses who are particularly well treated in the handicap. CAPTAIN SUNSHINE is another scopey, full of potential type who hasnt quite put all things together just yet this season and that may have a little to do with his temperament. On his reappearance he ran a satisfactory race finishing sixth at Cheltenham but looked as if he needed that run, he then unfortunately refused to race at Exeter and then on his subsequent start looked like the ground may have caught him out after travelling well until three out. As I've mentioned in previous bloggs I think Emma Lavelle is an excellent trainer and will certainly have CAPTAIN SUNSHINE ready to run a huge race. Its also worth pointing out that this horse has course and distance form at Kempton off exactly the same mark as he finds himself on now. My other selection is a big price but certainly has the quality to land a race of this nature, SON OF FLICKA likes ground which is got the description good to soft or good ground in his victories and place results. Winning the Coral Cup at Cheltenham last year was a life times best performance over this distance and I'm convinced he can still produce a run like that even if he is still 5lb's or so above his last winning mark. If ground stays good to soft as is currently forecast then I would certainly give him a shout. Remember this is a horse who finished half a length behind Sir Des Champ a couple of seasons ago. Yes, he's out of form, he took a keen hold at Sandown last time out and weakened 4 furlongs out, previous to that he never looked like he wanted to run and that would be an obvious concern. However, it maybe last chance saloon time for SON OF FLICKA and I'm willing to give him one more chance at a massive price. It's certainly going to be one extreme or another, tailed off by 40 lengths or right up there in the van with a solid each way chance.
3.50pm Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) 2m
In this type of contest you can look for progress which has been shown by horses like Laterly and Ivors King to mention but a few. However, slipping down to a winnable mark now and with course and distance form STARLUCK really does appeal here. Viewers of my blogg may think I have an obsession with this horse but the truth is he's been amongst company that I believed he could beat but has come up short on both his previous starts. Consequently, dropping in class here, over a distance and track he enjoys will in my opinion be the difference and a return to winnings ways is highly likely, even if he carries top weight the three pound claimed by Tom Cannon an excellent apprentice will help his chances on ground that will suit. STARLUCK is well in with a chance here at what could be a very nice each way price.
I honestly cannot wait but with two months still to go, patience is a virtue and more racing to look through before our festival of thoroughbred national hunt racing begins and as Alistair Downe stated last year,
'That jump racing is all about emotion and the power of man and horse to both shake and shape your core. as long as there are folk who think that jumping a fence flat out on a winter's afternoon is a blessed piece of devilment forever worth the doing. And may that prove to be always.'
From a brilliant writer to a brilliant days racing, on with the card...
Warwick
12.40pm Novices Handicap Hurdle (Class 4) 2m
I've chosen to start in the first at Warwick because I'm certain that I've found a little value in my first selection of the day. THUNDER SHELK obviously has to put in a performance and will need to handle the soft conditions at Warwick but I see progress being made when judging him on his last run at Towcester, in that race he look well in contention three out only to find little over the 2m 5f trip, now he reverts back to the 2 miles off the same mark of 110 and with a huge positive in the booking of Timmy Murphy on board, I certainly believe a big run is on the cards. THUNDER SHELK has been running against better opposition than this recently and now amongst company similar to his ability I think enough positive boxes are ticked to give him a nice each way chance. Plus, how many of these would finish 35 lengths or better behind Hinterland?...
1.15 Handicap Chase (Class 3) 2m
KAPGA DE CERISY is still only a five year old and is the scopey. progressive type who can really make it in this type of race. Blinkered first time here this French recruit for the Venetia Williams yard has the potential to become an excellent chaser. Venetia has her horses in terrific form at present and when she's in form it's also worth following her stable. KAPGA DE CERISY ran an excellent race over the extended 2 miles at Ascot on his penultimate start finishing fourth at big odds. That run showed promise and going back over the 2 mile trip will suit, I have no real doubts over the ground as hailing from France they usually like a bit of toe in and finishing close behind Rolling Aces and finishing five lengths behind Hadrian's Approach is excellent form. To sum up a horse going places, will obviously need to jump efficiently but with a trainer and jockey in form, I think progress will be made with no stamina doubts in soft conditions.
1.50 Novices Chase (Class 2) 3m 110y
A small field go to post but with a few quality contenders in the mix. I'm a huge fan of my selection who has won two chases this season, a Flemensfirth gelding who did nothing but show his class, his efficient slick jumping from the front to win a competitive heat at Cheltenham last time out. HIGHLAND LODGE drew away by 22 lengths beating Our Father in impressive style. His official rating has now gone up by 2lbs which in my opinion wont stop this excellent chaser in the making. Emma Lavelle has a super chaser on her hands and I see this gelding going up the ratings by at least another 10lbs. So in my view HIGHLAND LODGE will get the trip on a soft going and will be very hard to beat if aloud to dictate proceedings. I've got my hands covering my eyes but this is my nap of the day.
2.25pm Pertemps Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) (Class 2) 3m 1f
The Pertemps hurdle at the festival is always a competitive heat and was won in terrific style by Cape Tribulation last season and some of these will undoubtedly have that as there target this year. A real mixed bag of contenders here leaves you with a bit of a head scratch, for example West End Rocker is reverting back to hurdles, a real staying type which may rekindle his form but haven't seen him over hurdles since 2008. Other types like De La Bech are progressing at a rate of knotts and maybe well in here both in weight and handicap mark. But THE PACKAGE is the class pick here, he came back to win the Badger Ales Chase at Wincanton in terrific style and then finished 4th in the Hennessy off a chase mark of 147 which is 13lbs higher than his mark for this race. He is off course reverting back over hurdles and I'm certain his form over fences can justify him having a huge chance here. He's well in at the weights and it looks like Timmy Murphy can be on the scoresheet once again. THE PACKAGE has all the right credentials to land this race as ground, trip and course wont pose a problem to this classy 10 year old.
3.35pm Betfred Classic Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) 3m 5f (Class 1)
The stamina sapping trip on a soft going equats to a solid, strong travelling horse who can jump and travel. The horse that sticks out in this race is Pete the Feat, much like Hunt Ball last season he has made some impressive progress up through the handicap and in fairness has his stiffest task to date but he still maybe one step ahead of the handicap. However, I'm going to swerve him as I believe he has reached the point where others around him are probably better in this quality of race but fair play to the Kings Theatre gelding and Charlie Longsden who has undoubtedly done a superb training job for the owners Mr Larby and Mr Smith. Pete the Feat this time last year was running in a class 5 race at Folkstone rated as low as 95, he's now rated 134. I'm siding with BRADLEY once again, he seemed unsettled after jumping the first at Cheltenham last time, he was bussled along and never really settled into his jumping properly. The blinkers this time may spark him back into life as he'll certainly stay over this trip and on this ground. The form that has been well and truly franked was his second to Monbeg Dude in the Henrietta Knight handicap chase where he finished a neck behind. Monbeg Dude of course won the Welsh National last weekend so that form if replicated looks very strong indeed. The other interesting trend is that in the last two years a nine year old has taken this race.
Kempton Park
2.40pm Lanzarote Hurdle (Listed Handicap) 2m 5f
The real interest I have in this race is that I see two horses who are particularly well treated in the handicap. CAPTAIN SUNSHINE is another scopey, full of potential type who hasnt quite put all things together just yet this season and that may have a little to do with his temperament. On his reappearance he ran a satisfactory race finishing sixth at Cheltenham but looked as if he needed that run, he then unfortunately refused to race at Exeter and then on his subsequent start looked like the ground may have caught him out after travelling well until three out. As I've mentioned in previous bloggs I think Emma Lavelle is an excellent trainer and will certainly have CAPTAIN SUNSHINE ready to run a huge race. Its also worth pointing out that this horse has course and distance form at Kempton off exactly the same mark as he finds himself on now. My other selection is a big price but certainly has the quality to land a race of this nature, SON OF FLICKA likes ground which is got the description good to soft or good ground in his victories and place results. Winning the Coral Cup at Cheltenham last year was a life times best performance over this distance and I'm convinced he can still produce a run like that even if he is still 5lb's or so above his last winning mark. If ground stays good to soft as is currently forecast then I would certainly give him a shout. Remember this is a horse who finished half a length behind Sir Des Champ a couple of seasons ago. Yes, he's out of form, he took a keen hold at Sandown last time out and weakened 4 furlongs out, previous to that he never looked like he wanted to run and that would be an obvious concern. However, it maybe last chance saloon time for SON OF FLICKA and I'm willing to give him one more chance at a massive price. It's certainly going to be one extreme or another, tailed off by 40 lengths or right up there in the van with a solid each way chance.
3.50pm Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) 2m
In this type of contest you can look for progress which has been shown by horses like Laterly and Ivors King to mention but a few. However, slipping down to a winnable mark now and with course and distance form STARLUCK really does appeal here. Viewers of my blogg may think I have an obsession with this horse but the truth is he's been amongst company that I believed he could beat but has come up short on both his previous starts. Consequently, dropping in class here, over a distance and track he enjoys will in my opinion be the difference and a return to winnings ways is highly likely, even if he carries top weight the three pound claimed by Tom Cannon an excellent apprentice will help his chances on ground that will suit. STARLUCK is well in with a chance here at what could be a very nice each way price.
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