Happy New Year!
Wishing everyone a happy, exciting and prosperous new year. I also hope some money can be made early on this year as we look towards the cards at Chepstow, Wincanton and Sandown Park.
Over the Christmas period we have clearly witnessed just how competitive the three mile steeplechase division is. For me, the Lexus at Leopardstown this year was nothing short of magical, with one fence to jump it looked like the new kid on the block had arrived, Flemenstar cruising on the bridle and looking like the winner with a furlong to run. However, the chasing pack who had all ran over this trip stayed on, First Lieutenant, Sir Des Champ and then the enigmatic Tidal Bay finished with a flourish and took this race in the dying strides. Terrific!
Many journalists, writers and punters now believe he can win a Gold Cup, many also believe Sir Des Champ is the clear stayer to take out of this race who again has been touted as the next winner of our blue riband steeplechase. However my stance is clear, Tidal Bay needs a soft going, runs with irregularity too often and isnt always the most fluent of jumpers. Sir Des Champ is another who now falls into the 'dodgy' jumper category. I certainly wouldnt of said that before the Lexus but after witnessing his inefficient style, jumping slowly and having to be bussled from a long way out to stay on now leaves me with doubts about his jumping but not his stamina. We then look to Flemenstar, this horse has ran consistently flambouyantly which in many peoples eyes is a negative over a 3 mile trip but he took on all the big guns, he jumped terrifically the best in the race, he travelled going to the last then found little but still finished 3rd only by a length or so. I say give him another go over the 3 miles in the Irish Hennessy, hope for better ground, try to reserve his stamina by riding him differently and then we have no doubt as to where he should go come Cheltenham. I for one still believe in him over the 3 mile trip.
Chepstow (Heavy ground)
1.35pm Future Champions Finale Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 110y
Some of the top yards are represented in this competitive juvenile hurdle and these four year olds may indeed become future stars. I'm always intrigued by the pedigree of John Ferguson's horses as many have top level flat form and he seems to be training them to even better effect over obstacles. In this race it looks like the Cape Cross gelding RUACANA has an excellent chance. Winning a juvenile hurdle over this distance at Catterick last time out is a positive as the horse who finished second in that race (Totalize) has gone on to win at Musselburgh last time out. RUACANA will need to get through the heavy going which I believe he can handle, he has winning form at the track on the flat and a repeat of his last win will see him well in the frame here.
2.10pm Handicap Chase 2m 3f 110y
This doesn't look the most competitive of handicaps, to start I would like to give a mention to Mahogany Blaze who ran a very credible race last time out at Newbury to only lose by a neck over the two and a half mile trip is a very solid return to form. However, being raised 3lbs here and in carrying top weight looks like he wont return to winning ways, which last were seen back in 2008. No, I'm inclined to go with a horse I've been following since it's win at Newbury over the 17 furlong trip last season, this Le Fou gelding has been making progress with only a couple of runs that haven't quite worked out for him. His win at Ascot last time out when beating Brass Tax by half a length is arguably his best run to date, the way CEDRE BLEU fought on in the closing stages over the extended mile and a half on heavy ground is a huge positive. CEDRE BLEU found the stamina in that race and I'm convinced even in the finish he knew he was just doing enough. The price wont be great as is always the case with Ruby/Nicholls partnerships but if he jumps like he did last time out then this beautiful stamp of a horse has every chance.
3.20pm Coral Welsh National (Grade 3 Handicap Chase) 3m 5f 110y
The day in the sun for some of our old and new solid staying handicappers and a race I always enjoy. The eighteen runners that go to post will not only need to get this stamina zapping trip, not only love heavy holding ground and not only jump consistently but also stay out of trouble. Le Beau Bai was able to do all those things last year and it's a real shame he doesnt line up again. The important trends are that since 1996 no horse has won carrying more than 11-3, the betting favourite has only won once in the last nine years and ages 7-9 year olds are the most dominant for winners. Firstly, I think it goes without saying that GILES CROSS has undoubtedly a clear chance finishing runner up in the last two renewals of this race, he loves the track and heavy going is right up he's street. Had I not mentioned this truly gritty 11 year old then I would be spitting feathers had I not tipped him at a very attractive price. My only concern is the extremely unlucky turn of events for the trainer Victor Dartnell at his yard this year in which a virus has effected his whole programme for his runners. I'm also going against the trends I previously mentioned for my next runner, ACROSS THE BAY (he may go to Sandown Park instead, fingers crossed he goes for this though). This Bob's return bay gelding has been trained with this race in mind and I'm keen on him for more than one reason. He won with ease on his penultimate start at Carlisle beating Cappa Bleu by 28 lengths, he's progressed again this season at the age of 9 and for me he seems like he's not for stopping, this time last year he was rated around the 140 mark, currently he's on a mark of 153 and he found that just too tough last time out. Furthermore, he likes heavy going and seems to run well on this surface, if he replicates the form that saw him finish second last time out, or the win at Carlisle or even his Kelso win back in October then I see ACROSS THE BAY a clear winner. He carries top weight which makes it difficult but certainly not impossible.
Wincanton (Heavy, soft in places)
2.40pm Handicap Chase 2m 5f
Not sure it's my selections favoured ground conditions but MICHAEL FLIPS is dropping down in grade here, his mark has tumbled to 139 and that is undoubtedly a winnable mark against horses that are in the twilight of their careers or simply wont progress enough to take this. MICHAEL FLIPS has ran with some credit this year but maybe lacking in class against the premiership horses, but a horse who finished 4th in last years Jewson and a horse who has beaten Walkon and Cedre Bleu is a horse who will undoubtedly take all the beating in this grade.
Sandown Park (Hurdle:Heavy-soft in places: Chase Soft-Heavy in places)
3.00pm 32Red Handicap Hurdle 2m 110y)
David Pipe's yard in recent weeks has been simply on fire. Boxing day for example he saddled five winners and three winners on the 1st of this month has certainly helped in my selection process here. Moreover, RONALDO DES MOTTES seems to be the class act here, Tom Bellamy takes off a valuable 7lbs which puts him right in with an excellent chance. On his last start he finished last but finished 16 lengths behind Oscar Whisky which I see as a positive back in April of last year. If he's fresh and well I see this as a good starting point for his season ahead.
3.40pm 32Red.com HBLB Handicap Chase 3m 110y
*ACROSS THE BAY if entered for this race. Same reasons as before.
Wishing everyone a happy, exciting and prosperous new year. I also hope some money can be made early on this year as we look towards the cards at Chepstow, Wincanton and Sandown Park.
Over the Christmas period we have clearly witnessed just how competitive the three mile steeplechase division is. For me, the Lexus at Leopardstown this year was nothing short of magical, with one fence to jump it looked like the new kid on the block had arrived, Flemenstar cruising on the bridle and looking like the winner with a furlong to run. However, the chasing pack who had all ran over this trip stayed on, First Lieutenant, Sir Des Champ and then the enigmatic Tidal Bay finished with a flourish and took this race in the dying strides. Terrific!
Many journalists, writers and punters now believe he can win a Gold Cup, many also believe Sir Des Champ is the clear stayer to take out of this race who again has been touted as the next winner of our blue riband steeplechase. However my stance is clear, Tidal Bay needs a soft going, runs with irregularity too often and isnt always the most fluent of jumpers. Sir Des Champ is another who now falls into the 'dodgy' jumper category. I certainly wouldnt of said that before the Lexus but after witnessing his inefficient style, jumping slowly and having to be bussled from a long way out to stay on now leaves me with doubts about his jumping but not his stamina. We then look to Flemenstar, this horse has ran consistently flambouyantly which in many peoples eyes is a negative over a 3 mile trip but he took on all the big guns, he jumped terrifically the best in the race, he travelled going to the last then found little but still finished 3rd only by a length or so. I say give him another go over the 3 miles in the Irish Hennessy, hope for better ground, try to reserve his stamina by riding him differently and then we have no doubt as to where he should go come Cheltenham. I for one still believe in him over the 3 mile trip.
Chepstow (Heavy ground)
1.35pm Future Champions Finale Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 110y
Some of the top yards are represented in this competitive juvenile hurdle and these four year olds may indeed become future stars. I'm always intrigued by the pedigree of John Ferguson's horses as many have top level flat form and he seems to be training them to even better effect over obstacles. In this race it looks like the Cape Cross gelding RUACANA has an excellent chance. Winning a juvenile hurdle over this distance at Catterick last time out is a positive as the horse who finished second in that race (Totalize) has gone on to win at Musselburgh last time out. RUACANA will need to get through the heavy going which I believe he can handle, he has winning form at the track on the flat and a repeat of his last win will see him well in the frame here.
2.10pm Handicap Chase 2m 3f 110y
This doesn't look the most competitive of handicaps, to start I would like to give a mention to Mahogany Blaze who ran a very credible race last time out at Newbury to only lose by a neck over the two and a half mile trip is a very solid return to form. However, being raised 3lbs here and in carrying top weight looks like he wont return to winning ways, which last were seen back in 2008. No, I'm inclined to go with a horse I've been following since it's win at Newbury over the 17 furlong trip last season, this Le Fou gelding has been making progress with only a couple of runs that haven't quite worked out for him. His win at Ascot last time out when beating Brass Tax by half a length is arguably his best run to date, the way CEDRE BLEU fought on in the closing stages over the extended mile and a half on heavy ground is a huge positive. CEDRE BLEU found the stamina in that race and I'm convinced even in the finish he knew he was just doing enough. The price wont be great as is always the case with Ruby/Nicholls partnerships but if he jumps like he did last time out then this beautiful stamp of a horse has every chance.
3.20pm Coral Welsh National (Grade 3 Handicap Chase) 3m 5f 110y
The day in the sun for some of our old and new solid staying handicappers and a race I always enjoy. The eighteen runners that go to post will not only need to get this stamina zapping trip, not only love heavy holding ground and not only jump consistently but also stay out of trouble. Le Beau Bai was able to do all those things last year and it's a real shame he doesnt line up again. The important trends are that since 1996 no horse has won carrying more than 11-3, the betting favourite has only won once in the last nine years and ages 7-9 year olds are the most dominant for winners. Firstly, I think it goes without saying that GILES CROSS has undoubtedly a clear chance finishing runner up in the last two renewals of this race, he loves the track and heavy going is right up he's street. Had I not mentioned this truly gritty 11 year old then I would be spitting feathers had I not tipped him at a very attractive price. My only concern is the extremely unlucky turn of events for the trainer Victor Dartnell at his yard this year in which a virus has effected his whole programme for his runners. I'm also going against the trends I previously mentioned for my next runner, ACROSS THE BAY (he may go to Sandown Park instead, fingers crossed he goes for this though). This Bob's return bay gelding has been trained with this race in mind and I'm keen on him for more than one reason. He won with ease on his penultimate start at Carlisle beating Cappa Bleu by 28 lengths, he's progressed again this season at the age of 9 and for me he seems like he's not for stopping, this time last year he was rated around the 140 mark, currently he's on a mark of 153 and he found that just too tough last time out. Furthermore, he likes heavy going and seems to run well on this surface, if he replicates the form that saw him finish second last time out, or the win at Carlisle or even his Kelso win back in October then I see ACROSS THE BAY a clear winner. He carries top weight which makes it difficult but certainly not impossible.
Wincanton (Heavy, soft in places)
2.40pm Handicap Chase 2m 5f
Not sure it's my selections favoured ground conditions but MICHAEL FLIPS is dropping down in grade here, his mark has tumbled to 139 and that is undoubtedly a winnable mark against horses that are in the twilight of their careers or simply wont progress enough to take this. MICHAEL FLIPS has ran with some credit this year but maybe lacking in class against the premiership horses, but a horse who finished 4th in last years Jewson and a horse who has beaten Walkon and Cedre Bleu is a horse who will undoubtedly take all the beating in this grade.
Sandown Park (Hurdle:Heavy-soft in places: Chase Soft-Heavy in places)
3.00pm 32Red Handicap Hurdle 2m 110y)
David Pipe's yard in recent weeks has been simply on fire. Boxing day for example he saddled five winners and three winners on the 1st of this month has certainly helped in my selection process here. Moreover, RONALDO DES MOTTES seems to be the class act here, Tom Bellamy takes off a valuable 7lbs which puts him right in with an excellent chance. On his last start he finished last but finished 16 lengths behind Oscar Whisky which I see as a positive back in April of last year. If he's fresh and well I see this as a good starting point for his season ahead.
3.40pm 32Red.com HBLB Handicap Chase 3m 110y
*ACROSS THE BAY if entered for this race. Same reasons as before.
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