The festive season is here and in our beautiful sport we have some real Christmas crackers to look forward to. The King George and the Lexus Chase this year may potentially lead us into 2013 with a prose that may warm all the hearts of the racing fraternity. On one hand we have the young pretenders who may indeed be distinctly brave and enthusiastic. On the other, we have our experienced and seasoned thoroughbreds who may indeed step back into the crown of a champion.
I'm particularly looking forward to seeing Cue Card, Captain Chris, Kauto Stone and in Ireland Sizing Europe, Sir Des Champ and my horse to follow within all of this is Flemenstar. The festive season is all about making your judgements clearer as our attentions will soon be turning to the spring where the road to stardom becomes ever greater, the one and only festival that matters will be on the horizon and a new star will be born. Now is the time to assess the possibilities...
12.50pm Novices Hurdle 2m
As my selection in the first is a non runner, I'm looking at a newcomer who caught the eye in his flat career and an out an out stayer on a heavy surface. ASKER has a high quality sire in his pedigree and being rated around the 85-87 mark on the flat doesn't leap out of the page at you. However, if ASKER has schooled well over timber then he certainly has an each way squeak as he handles the ground and should get the trip. He looks a good each way selection but he wouldn't of been my first pick as you can see below. NON RUNNER As with many novice hurdles this year it's been hard to get a handle on future stars over timber and that's no truer than later on in the card, the ground and the fact that opportunities have been limited because of our awful weather has effected form lines and the term 'freshness' now seems to be the new slogan. "Does he go well fresh?" Seems to be the 'in thing' and that maybe the clue to unravelling this tricky race. The fact is so many of these are unknown quantities and the ones we do know of may find this ground far too testing for them. Hence, ground is a concern but not the main reason to just opt for a heavy going type nor is the fact that although the obvious favourite River Maigue has ran in arguably the most competitive race out of all the other contenders I still believe that having experience at Kempton is always a positive, it's a gallopers track and that's why SPIRIT OF FRANKLY fits the bill. His close 3rd at the track is a big positive for me, the winner of that race hasn't quite gone on to bigger and better things but it still looked a competitive race and I still think
SPIRIT OF FRANKLY is progressing, for a stable in the last few seasons who have been moving in the right direction. My only reservation here would be the ground.
1.25pm Handicap Chase 2m 4f (Class 3)
A trainer who's been in superb form and a horse who will love the ground, is an excellent jumper and looks like the transition to fences is one of a natural progression. COOLE RIVER is the horse I'm talking about, this Emma Lavelle, Caroll House gelding was previously trained by Jessica Harrington and a couple of years ago illustrated just what a top class animal he is he. Over timber in 2010 he won two top level races beating Quel Espirit and Lucky William. A break developed for his 2011 campaign but looked classy and solid over the bigger obstacles last time out at Wincanton, losing by two and a quarter lengths to Grandioso who on that occasion had the benefit of a run. COOLE RIVER is eight now and that's relatively old for a novice but if his jumping is straightened up then the course and ground will undoubtedly suit. The class pick for me where the handicapper is yet to catch up with this horse.
2.00pm Kauto Star Feltham Novices Chase 3m (Class 1)
Sometimes you try and find chinks in the armoury, a detail which can be perceived as the reason why things wont happen. However, the horse I've found here is not a very inspiring or original selection but as the German term, 'Ausschlussverfarhen' refers too by process of elimination this race belongs to one winner. DYNASTE or Dynasty as David Pipe seems to keep alluding to as the correct pronunciation of this classy chaser. DYNASTE is the odds on favourite but rightly so. His jumping is extremely economical and clever when it needs to be, he is also a speedy individual who seems to travel extremely well throughout his races. On both his starts this year at Cheltenham and Newbury he has been in cruise control and as yet hasnt been asked too many questions. This looks a similar task against horses who unfortunately fall into the biggest part of the ratings spectrum, mediocrity.
2.35pm Christmas Hurdle 2m (Grade 1)
This is a race full of anticipation. This is the kind of race which will make you a believer, the talk so far has been to doubt the majority of runners. For example, Countrywide Flame is a Triumph Hurdle winner, has had a quick return to the winners enclosure and really did see off Cinders and Ashes with ease last time out at Newcastle but people in the racing press still seem unconvinced. Then we have Darlan who hasnt been seen yet this year but who ran well to finish second in the Supreme Novices at Cheltenham a race won by Cinder and Ashes last year and a horse who has been touted as a potential superstar. We then have the Donald McCain five year old I previously mentioned Cinders and Ashes who undoubtedly has a chance, but what about an older exposed horse but exposed for all the right reasons. PUNJABI seems to be of no interest to the betting firms, punters or racing press but I'm convinced he has a major part to play. Nicky Henderson and the owner Mr Raymond Tooth still believe in this Champion Hurdle winning 9 year old even though his form tallied off a little in 2010. He's been rated as high as 166 over hurdles and has beaten the likes of Binocular and Quevaga. PUNJABI will be fit without question, has course and distance form and will love the heavy going. I believe he is an each way selection without question and if he replicates any of his form in the 2009/2010 season then he'll go very close to landing this at a massive price.
3.10pm William Hill King George VI Chase 3m (Grade 1)
Cant Wait!...A more than intriguing race awaits not least because we have so many front running tacticians but also because the ground is going to be heavy with the new pretenders trying to cut the mustard at the highest level. The interesting paradox about running over this trip at Kempton is that although its a flat track you here the proverbial, "If he's gonna get 3 miles he'll get it at Kempton'. Seems to be an outdated train of thought, the reason behind it is that although it's flat the gallop the horses produce here is fierce and you need a stayer without question over the three mile trip. I read a very interesting piece on the NTF (Narrowing the Field) blogg this week where statistic's made an interesting read in regards to this race and the Lexus Chase, where 10 of the last 11 winners of the Cheltenham Gold Cup have finished first or second in that seasons King George or Lexus. This undoubtedly will give us clues on 2013's Gold Cup so who will win.
Well, again it's tough so I'm delving into some well rehearsed territory, LONG RUN has won this race, he has been consistent throughout his career and can certainly be made more use of over this 3 mile trip in this years renewal. LONG RUN, ticks all the right boxes and few unknowns are present when weighing up his chances. He is without question the horse to beat and if Sam Waley Cohen can get the tactics right on him and guide him into the fences correctly then I'm sure he'll take all the beating at a currently unattractive price.
Consequently, I'm also going to tip CHAMPION COURT this enthusiastic front runner progressed no end last season. He finished a close second to Sir Des Champ in the Jewson last year and ran with an extremely excellent amount of credit over the 3m 1f at Aintree at the back end of last season when losing to the highly impressive Silvianco Conti. CHAMPION COURT ran over a far too short trip at Ascot last time out and this step up to the 3 miles on a gallopers track may play into his favoured front running tactics. If he stay's he'll be battling all the way up the run in, at a current 25/1 looks a good each way proposition.
Merry Christmas
 |
| Always looking for clues in 2013. |
I'm particularly looking forward to seeing Cue Card, Captain Chris, Kauto Stone and in Ireland Sizing Europe, Sir Des Champ and my horse to follow within all of this is Flemenstar. The festive season is all about making your judgements clearer as our attentions will soon be turning to the spring where the road to stardom becomes ever greater, the one and only festival that matters will be on the horizon and a new star will be born. Now is the time to assess the possibilities...
12.50pm Novices Hurdle 2m
As my selection in the first is a non runner, I'm looking at a newcomer who caught the eye in his flat career and an out an out stayer on a heavy surface. ASKER has a high quality sire in his pedigree and being rated around the 85-87 mark on the flat doesn't leap out of the page at you. However, if ASKER has schooled well over timber then he certainly has an each way squeak as he handles the ground and should get the trip. He looks a good each way selection but he wouldn't of been my first pick as you can see below. NON RUNNER As with many novice hurdles this year it's been hard to get a handle on future stars over timber and that's no truer than later on in the card, the ground and the fact that opportunities have been limited because of our awful weather has effected form lines and the term 'freshness' now seems to be the new slogan. "Does he go well fresh?" Seems to be the 'in thing' and that maybe the clue to unravelling this tricky race. The fact is so many of these are unknown quantities and the ones we do know of may find this ground far too testing for them. Hence, ground is a concern but not the main reason to just opt for a heavy going type nor is the fact that although the obvious favourite River Maigue has ran in arguably the most competitive race out of all the other contenders I still believe that having experience at Kempton is always a positive, it's a gallopers track and that's why SPIRIT OF FRANKLY fits the bill. His close 3rd at the track is a big positive for me, the winner of that race hasn't quite gone on to bigger and better things but it still looked a competitive race and I still think
SPIRIT OF FRANKLY is progressing, for a stable in the last few seasons who have been moving in the right direction. My only reservation here would be the ground.
1.25pm Handicap Chase 2m 4f (Class 3)
A trainer who's been in superb form and a horse who will love the ground, is an excellent jumper and looks like the transition to fences is one of a natural progression. COOLE RIVER is the horse I'm talking about, this Emma Lavelle, Caroll House gelding was previously trained by Jessica Harrington and a couple of years ago illustrated just what a top class animal he is he. Over timber in 2010 he won two top level races beating Quel Espirit and Lucky William. A break developed for his 2011 campaign but looked classy and solid over the bigger obstacles last time out at Wincanton, losing by two and a quarter lengths to Grandioso who on that occasion had the benefit of a run. COOLE RIVER is eight now and that's relatively old for a novice but if his jumping is straightened up then the course and ground will undoubtedly suit. The class pick for me where the handicapper is yet to catch up with this horse.
2.00pm Kauto Star Feltham Novices Chase 3m (Class 1)
Sometimes you try and find chinks in the armoury, a detail which can be perceived as the reason why things wont happen. However, the horse I've found here is not a very inspiring or original selection but as the German term, 'Ausschlussverfarhen' refers too by process of elimination this race belongs to one winner. DYNASTE or Dynasty as David Pipe seems to keep alluding to as the correct pronunciation of this classy chaser. DYNASTE is the odds on favourite but rightly so. His jumping is extremely economical and clever when it needs to be, he is also a speedy individual who seems to travel extremely well throughout his races. On both his starts this year at Cheltenham and Newbury he has been in cruise control and as yet hasnt been asked too many questions. This looks a similar task against horses who unfortunately fall into the biggest part of the ratings spectrum, mediocrity.
2.35pm Christmas Hurdle 2m (Grade 1)
This is a race full of anticipation. This is the kind of race which will make you a believer, the talk so far has been to doubt the majority of runners. For example, Countrywide Flame is a Triumph Hurdle winner, has had a quick return to the winners enclosure and really did see off Cinders and Ashes with ease last time out at Newcastle but people in the racing press still seem unconvinced. Then we have Darlan who hasnt been seen yet this year but who ran well to finish second in the Supreme Novices at Cheltenham a race won by Cinder and Ashes last year and a horse who has been touted as a potential superstar. We then have the Donald McCain five year old I previously mentioned Cinders and Ashes who undoubtedly has a chance, but what about an older exposed horse but exposed for all the right reasons. PUNJABI seems to be of no interest to the betting firms, punters or racing press but I'm convinced he has a major part to play. Nicky Henderson and the owner Mr Raymond Tooth still believe in this Champion Hurdle winning 9 year old even though his form tallied off a little in 2010. He's been rated as high as 166 over hurdles and has beaten the likes of Binocular and Quevaga. PUNJABI will be fit without question, has course and distance form and will love the heavy going. I believe he is an each way selection without question and if he replicates any of his form in the 2009/2010 season then he'll go very close to landing this at a massive price.
3.10pm William Hill King George VI Chase 3m (Grade 1)
Cant Wait!...A more than intriguing race awaits not least because we have so many front running tacticians but also because the ground is going to be heavy with the new pretenders trying to cut the mustard at the highest level. The interesting paradox about running over this trip at Kempton is that although its a flat track you here the proverbial, "If he's gonna get 3 miles he'll get it at Kempton'. Seems to be an outdated train of thought, the reason behind it is that although it's flat the gallop the horses produce here is fierce and you need a stayer without question over the three mile trip. I read a very interesting piece on the NTF (Narrowing the Field) blogg this week where statistic's made an interesting read in regards to this race and the Lexus Chase, where 10 of the last 11 winners of the Cheltenham Gold Cup have finished first or second in that seasons King George or Lexus. This undoubtedly will give us clues on 2013's Gold Cup so who will win.
Well, again it's tough so I'm delving into some well rehearsed territory, LONG RUN has won this race, he has been consistent throughout his career and can certainly be made more use of over this 3 mile trip in this years renewal. LONG RUN, ticks all the right boxes and few unknowns are present when weighing up his chances. He is without question the horse to beat and if Sam Waley Cohen can get the tactics right on him and guide him into the fences correctly then I'm sure he'll take all the beating at a currently unattractive price.
Consequently, I'm also going to tip CHAMPION COURT this enthusiastic front runner progressed no end last season. He finished a close second to Sir Des Champ in the Jewson last year and ran with an extremely excellent amount of credit over the 3m 1f at Aintree at the back end of last season when losing to the highly impressive Silvianco Conti. CHAMPION COURT ran over a far too short trip at Ascot last time out and this step up to the 3 miles on a gallopers track may play into his favoured front running tactics. If he stay's he'll be battling all the way up the run in, at a current 25/1 looks a good each way proposition.
Merry Christmas
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