Saturday 17th November 2012 - Cheltenham Paddy Power meeting.
A revamped blogg for the national hunt season!
My blogging has suffered in recent weeks this has been due to other commitments but I can assure my followers (the very few followers I hasten to add) who indeed enjoy my blogg, I will be blogging every week without fail from now on and may increase that to two a week as this national hunt season begins to take off.
Boy! Am I excited by the colossal, formidable card we have to look forward to at Cheltenham this Saturday. It's the time of year when the old and new meet in what promises to be a magnificient showpeice to get the juices flowing for a season that will undoubtedly be one to remember.
Finally, as it's Thursday I have my fingers crossed that my selections go to post, if indeed they are non runners then I will be updating this tomorrow evening if necessary.
On with the card...
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| Sprinter Sacre Aintree 2012 A superstar in the making... |
12.45pm JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (Grade 2) 2m 110y
Always competitive renewals of this race for the three year olds and future stars are born. Hinterland won this in cracking style last year when staying on in the run in. Paul Nicholls has Far West representing his stable here and judging on his debut run at Chepstow when winning by 12 lengths has every chance from a stable in form. However, the Alan King trained MCVICAR looks the more battle hardened individual. Rated a career high of 75 and a winning mark of 69 this consistent flat performer has certainly taken to his jumps and has enjoyed two victories from two starts over hurdles. On both those starts he likes to be handy and made every post a winning one on his last start at Huntingdon. He may well go off favourite but Alan King looks like he's back to his best, the yard is flying and with Choc in the saddle this looks like it's a victory for the Barbury Castle stable.
1.20pm Rewards for Racing Novices Chase 3m
Three miles around Cheltenham with any type of ground description is always a test, particularly over fences. Consequently, you need a proven traveller over this trip, one that is a consistent jumper. Two such runners fall into that kind of profile. The Paul Nicholls trained Sire Collonges and the Charlie Byrnes trained SEA OF THUNDER these two horses could be dualling up the Cheltenham hill and may well be hard to split. When looking at the last dual they had at this track in the Bruton Knowles novices chase over the 3m trip, Sire Collonges got the better of Sea of Thunder even when blundering the second last and managed to stay on. However, if SEA OF THUNDER can be ridden a little more handier and not allowing Sire Collonges to get too far away in front then with the 3lb pull in the weights I believe this Gigginstwon Stud owned Old Vic gelding can get the better of all that take him on, in what promises to be a very competitive heat.
1.55pm Henrietta Knight Handicap Chase 3m 3f (Grade 3)
Nice to see this named after such a terrific trainer who has given so much to our beautiful sport. For me this is without question one of the most competitive races on the card today. I'm very much looking forward to seeing Carruthers run again this season. Winning the Hennessy last year at Newbury was probably the highlight of the national hunt season for me, particularly for Lord Oaksey who bred this terrific, gutsy horse. However, carrying top weight and winning in this type of race will be difficult particularly as he refused to run last time out. I'm looking at BRADLEY here I believe this Fergal O Brien trained eight year old will keep progressing this season. In his last race at the track he looked a little unlucky when hampered in running but was staying on all the way to the line. He seems to jump well and likes Cheltenham. Consequently, his handicap mark looks lenient at best and I see BRADLEY running a solid race of a light weight and could take all the beating.
2.35pm Paddy Power Gold Cup 2m 4f (Grade 3 Handicap)
One of my favourite races of the season, this handicap usually springs up a few surprises and I'm certain some of the less exposed novice types who are at the head of the market could undoubtedly become superstars. Grand Crus, Hunt Ball and Al Ferof to name but a few may indeed become legends but judging on some of the trends I'm looking elsewhere not least to find the value pick! Lets turn our attention to some of the trends here. Firstly, it's quite a common sense trend, experience in big handicaps can often pay dividends that means backing chasers with more miles on the clock in a race such as this maybe a good starting point. Secondly, the last eight Paddy Power Gold Cup winners were rated below a mark of 150 and when you look at the record of chasers with a rating of 157-plus in big field handicaps they have only equated for a small proportion of wins. That said of course class maybe everything and these trends may fail to stack up. However, I'm sticking to my guns here and I'm backing MICHAEL FLIPS who ticks all the right boxes. He ran a cracker in the Jewson Chase last year when finishing fourth at a big price over his favoured trip of 2m 4f. Also, For Non Stop has franked the form of MICHAEL FLIPS when he finished two lengths behind him in February at Newbury, he carries a very light weight here. I'm also casting aside his last run as that was over too short a trip at Ascot last time out.
I'm also going to tip two older horses at big prices, I think having three in such a competitive handicap could pay dividends and also make it a little more interesting. So here goes POQUELIN a horse who is a very solid jumper and will enjoy a good even gallop, likes the track and has a proven record around the Gloucestershire track and is as big as 28/1. Yes, some negatives to take into consideration not least the trends I mentioned previously and the fact that he is top weight but he ran with alot to like last time out when finishing 4th, jumped excellently and stayed on in the finish. Harry Derham takes a valuable 7lbs off his back which will make all the difference in my eyes.
CALGARY BAY another big outsider but has experience to fall back on, another good jumper and stayer who delivered a sensational season for Henrietta Knight last year and could do the same again. My only concern would be the rain that potentially could fall in the next 24 hours but this gelding by Taipan loves it around Cheltenham and a change in trainer more often than not sparks new progression in these beautiful animals. CALGARY BAY a horse that is a mile and a half specialist has to be taken seriously particularly when his price is considerable value at around 25/1.
3.05pm Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Hurdle 3m 1f 110y (Listed)
You may think I'm crazy here in such a competitive handicap but I'm gonna stick my neck well and truly on the line here. CROSS KENNON is a big, big outsider currently around a 25/1 shot but with some faith I'm hoping for a return to form. CROSS KENNON won this race back in 2010, in that race he was off a lower handicap mark of 130 and is now currently rated 140, he is in appalling form at present but I'm happy his last run would of blown the cobwebs well and truly out of his system and that he returns to the kind of form that won him this race in 2010, the form which saw him run 2nd in February of this year at Haydock losing to Restless Harry in a handicap hurdle and the form that saw him finish 4th in the world hurdle at Cheltenham in 2011 finishing 5 lengths behind Big Bucks. I still believe he has class, if he can reproduce that type of form then I believe he will take all the beating at a track that suits him.
3.40pm Centaur Novices Handicap Hurdle 2m 110y
The four and five year olds have a great record in this race, obviously this maybe down to the number of entries within that age bracket but nonetheless they maybe the most progressive. This handicap is certainly trappy and difficult one to call. Again, I'm looking for value but not just for value sake. My selection seems to come alive at this track and has really enjoyed himself at big prices and falls into the age category. ABLE DEPUTY has worthy claims here. In his last race at the track back in January he finished sixth to Module finishing behind Hinterland by only three lengths or so. He has also finished eight lengths behind Darlan who could be in for a cracking season and who is highly regarded by Nicky Henderson. With all this in mind it is his first run and he may well need this but at 20/1 its again just too tempting.
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